In making preseason predictions I use some general rules of thought to conclude how team’s are doing. Several weeks ago I told a friend to not get too high on teams that come screaming out of the gate. They tend to fizzle out. I saw the Giants in the preseason and they were flat-out great. Now they’re on a 3 game skid. Fortunately for them they have plenty of time to regroup for the playoffs.

I didn’t think the Broncos were good when they went 6-0 and now they’ve been exposed.

One team that caught me off guard was the Bengals, which gives me a new rule for predicting team success: Great leaders trump great players. Meaning, teams that have great leadership at the head coach (or in Indy’s case, the QB) can get more out of their players than a mediocre leader with great players. Some people thought Marvin Lewis was done in Cincinnati and when they put together a team of has-beens I thought it was just the management’s way of adding player’s with resumes but nothing left in the tank.

The bottom line is; Marvin Lewis is a very good coach. Give him some football players and he’ll compete. San Diego is the other end of the spectrum. They have a great QB, some very good RBs, and a solid defense. Yet, they come slow out of the gate until it gets to crunch time where they have to ratchet things up to make the playoffs. I thought for sure with there soft schedule they’d coast in to the playoffs and talent would take over. But Norv Turner is not a great leader. I think he’s a very good coordinator but the players don’t respect or fear him like they did Schottenheimer. They appear to be righting the ship but they will eventually come up short dispite their talent.

If I could jump on another bandwagon it woud be the Saints. Drew Breese is leading that team the way Manning is leading the Colts. He’s putting it on his shoulders. And Sean Payton is a genius in how he’s using Reggie Bush. People may still be poo-pooing that draft pick but he’s getting touches, making plays, and scoring TDs. Go Saints!

Somebody wake me up when the Redskins get serious again.

Well, since my business is virtually shut down during the winter I have a bunch of retail space I’m not utilizing. This is a great way for me to keep a little momentum during the winter and help out the players in the club. The inventory is in, I just need to get it organized and we’ll be ready to go. Store hours will be posted soon.

Before we left I stopped by the tackle shop to see if I needed anything and I asked about the stretch lure which I hadn’t used before. Sure enough they had one and they were happy to take my money.

The “stretch” should be called the “snag”. That thing would steer towards the bridge everytime while we were trolling. But just as we were turning around after our first pass we got a strike. The striper was a definitely a keeper and he was nice and fat. The boys were stoked.

We messed around for a while and the few boats that were there started to head in so we passed over the channel and got another strike. Again, another fat keeper. It seems the fish were hanging around the channel under the high span.

The boys were getting bored so we trolled east back towards the launch and we got another striper but he was he was too close to call without a tape measure so we threw him back. Try telling your 4 year-old that the 17″ fish is too small and you have to throw him back. That fish looked pretty big to him.

Once again another beautiful day on the Outer Banks.

Last winter I was sweating bullets over the economy and how it would affect the summer business. We wound up being down a little but nothing hugely signficant. I read in Consumer Reports that vacations were the one thing the general population would actually spend more on now that they’ve reprioritized their finances. Hard to pinpoint the thinking behind that.

We had a very good staff this season which makes it more enjoyable for everyone. The key phrase for a business owner like myself is “no drama”. Just give me a group of people that show up to work everyday with a good attitude and give an honest effort. We’ll get them up to speed with the rest.

Back to windsurfing, over the next year I’m going to further our interest with more equipment and greater exposure. The bottom line is, we’re located in a great windsurfing spot where you don’t have to take your equipment elsewhere to rig it. We have it rigged for you. My goal is to get some of the people who regularly head south to Hatteras Island to slow down and try us.

In other news, stay tuned for a very exciting anouncement for the spring of 2010. It will bring more adventures to our site in Nags Head.

It’s been a long time since I’ve caught a striped bass and with my kids having Friday off from school it might be a good time to take them out there and give it a try. Besides, for every person on the boat we can keep 2 fish. But the kids have other redeeming qualities as well, just give me some more time to think of them.

I rode by Lillian St. access in Kitty Hawk on Tuesday and it was fairly packed due to the good swell. Lots of funboards catching some long rollers.

We had a big blow come through on Saturday and Sunday. When the wind stopped the ocean settled down and left behind a nice swell. It was pretty sloppy on Monday and peaked out nicely on Tuesday. By Wednesday it appeared to be mostly gone.

In other news, I was checking out http://www.kahunacreations.com/ to look at some of their products. I sell their Big Sticks, which is a tool to use your skateboard like a land paddleboard. When I went to their Facebook page I noticed they had pictures of Matthew McConaughey using one with his skateboard. Pretty cool.

I was in quite the dilemma. Paint the house or go surfing? Duh, I’m going surfing.

Air temp was about 70, water temp in the low 60s. There was a very gentle, slow rolling swell with a knee high wave you could ride for quite a long ways. On top of that there was no wind and the waters were very calm.

I actually needed a day like this to build up my confidence. The waves were easy to catch and I got good practice staying on the board as I finished out and turned around. In addition, I was able to paddle along with a pod of dolphin that weren’t too far away. Always a thrill.

The swell eventually quit around high tide so headed back home to see if I could get any work done. That didn’t last long because I soon had to pick up my son from elementary school which leads me to my second beach getaway.

I decided to take him, a friend, and my 4 year-old to the beach to play. Just in case I was given the opportunity I brought my fishing rod.

The kids went immediately to building a sand fort at the base of a washed up tree. If there’s one thing I can rely on with my kids at the beach is that they’ll find some old flotsam and start creating something. That distraction is just what I needed to start fishing and it went relatively smooth for 3 hours, which might be a record for us. I even caught a speckled trout, but not a keeper.

Once again it was a good day to be alive on the Outer Banks.

I scored one more wave before I had to hop in the car and go get the preschooler. The funniest part is changing out of the wetsuit at the beach access next to Black Pelican and going to school smelling like the ocean.

We never made it out of the creek it was blowing so hard and we were probably only on the boat for about an hour. Whoever said fish like it when it’s rough is full of it. I’ve never caught a fish in a good blow.

Needless to say, I spent the rest of the day trying to warm up and wondering why winter came so soon to the Outer Banks.

Alas, winter doesn’t have too tight a grip on us yet. I went for a bike ride yesterday, riding past the Laundry Mats (Kitty Hawk’s not-so-secret surf spot) and there were a bunch of surfers taking advantage of a nice swell. Full wetsuits were the standard attire. Did not see any gloves or booties.

Forcast is for warmer weather for the next couple of days (70-80) so if the swell continues it should be a good time to get out.

On Saturday the weather held off and we got in 6 races on the triangular course. Afterwards, we had a great social at Pamlico Jack’s just a block away. If you get the chance to go there they have a great deck bar overlooking the sound.

Sunday morning we woke up to clouds and cool weather. After much debating we decided on a mid-distance race across the sound. The winds were great, around 12 mph, and we were zipping across the water.

Chip Forbes won the regatta on a Hobie 16 with Chris Matthews coming in second on a Getaway. It should be noted that anyone scared to race should take a lesson from Wikey. Who, at 70 years old, capsized both days and each time got back on the boat and kept racing.

During the regatta I ran in to some BABA members who were on their way to Hatteras Island for a week of windsurfing. After talking with them I decided to hold a windsurfing regatta next year on Columbus Weekend. It should be a great time to attract racers from BABA and WET since they are in the neighborhood. Plus, it’s a good time for wind. In addition, I’ll switch the sailing regatta to a weekend in September where there will be more people to participate.

As an aside, we are shutting down the operation for the season except for windsurfing. We are going to try to attract the windsurfers who normally head down to Hatteras Island this time of year so I want to make ourselves more available.

Chris and Wikey bringing up the rear.